在一份由3月號哈佛商業評論(Harvard Business Review)所刊登的構想觀察,
(以下內容引述自Experts Are More Persuasive When They’re Less Certain)
…..The finding: When experts express uncertainty about their opinions,
people find them more compelling…..
…..The research: Zakary Tormala of Stanford Business School had subjects read a review
that gave a new eatery four out of five stars. Half the subjects read a write-up by
a professional food critic, and the other half, one by an amateur.
Half of each group saw a review that was highly certain; the rest, a review that was tentative.
The subjects were then asked how good they thought the restaurant would be.
While the confident amateur inspired subjects to give better ratings than the uncertain one,
the less assured expert prompted higher ratings than the certain expert…..
…..The phenomenon at work here is what we call expectancy violations. People expect experts to
be confident. Violations of that expectation surprise them. We see that in our data.
Subjects reported being more surprised by the uncertain experts and the confident amateurs.
A surprise draws you in and makes you pay more attention. It gives the review more impact…..
…..But closer attention doesn’t always lead to more persuasion. Remember that in our study,
both write-ups gave four out of five stars, and what the reviewer had to say was compelling.
If what you’re saying is not compelling, it could backfire…..
但這結果其實也很符合Elaboration Likelihood Model(ELM)的預測,
此時轉而使用中央路徑(central route to persuasion)來解析訊息,